By Julito G. Rada | Jan. 14, 2014 at
12:01am [ manilastandardtoday.com ]
Money sent home by Filipinos working overseas
is expected to grow faster in 2014, with the rebound of the global economy and
following the onslaught of super typhoon Yolanda in November, British bank
Standard Chartered said in a report Monday.
“We expect remittance growth to
accelerate in 2014 from the 6-percent print in 10M [10 months of] 2013. Global
growth is expected to improve to 3.5 percent in 2014 from 2.7 percent in 2013,
and it is likely that the Philippines will benefit from increased remittance
inflows from two of its major sources—the US and Europe,” Standard Chartered
said.
Data from the Bangko Sentral showed
cash remittances rose 6 percent to $18.5 billion in the first 10 months of 2013
from $17.5 billion a year ago.
“Our models show a significantly
strong relationship between nominal GDP growth and remittance growth from most
countries, indicating that higher GDP growth will boost the income and
remittance levels of overseas Filipinos. Along with near-term increased inflows
following typhoon Haiyan [Yolanda], we expect an increase of 2 to 2.5 percent
in remittance growth in 2014,” it said.
The bank said the sustained remittance
growth would support domestic consumption.
Standard Chartered said the growth in
remittances from Europe accelerated to 16.7 percent year-on-year in the first
10 months, much higher than the 0.3-percent increase in 2012.
Remittances from the Middle East also
grew 24.8 percent during the 10-month period, faster than the 5.3-percent gain
in the same period in 2012.
“US remittance growth was stable [7.8
percent from 7.7 percent], while remittances from Asia dropped [4.5 percent
from 12.7 percent]. We attribute slower remittance growth in Asia to Japan and
South Korea,” the bank said.
Standard Chartered said remittance
inflow growth lagged GDP growth in recent years. It said the Philippines was
moving from being a consumption-led economy to one also driven by domestic
investment. Julito G. Rada
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